Pitching prospects 2009

Pitchers are ranked according to my “Marmol index,” K’s per 9 innings minus hits per 9 innings. (Marmol generally leads the league, or close to it, in highest K/9 and lowest H/9.)

Last year, by the way, Marmol walked a hitter every two innings, not every inning, and so the Marmol index implied more overall effectiveness; but I hope he regains his form soon.

June 1st:

Gaub and Archer now 1 and 2. Archer the best overall.

Huseby and Albuquerque moving up.

So is Beliveau, who now ranks above Buchter. (Both are lefties.)

Moving down: Cales, Mateo, Schlitter.

June 9th:

Siegfried has some innings now, added to list. Sasser and Sommer added recently.

June 15th:

Lambert and Maestri added.

June 23rd:

Beliveau moves from 8th to 5th in the ranking. Maestri goes from 19 to 15. In the top 10, Archer and Hart stand out as the only starters.

June 29th:

Southpaw Jeffrey Beliveau (Peoria) bypasses Gaub to become the new leader in K/9! Beliveau shoots up to #3 overall, and is unquestionably the best pitcher in the organization that nobody ever heard of.

Newcomer Manolin De Leon (Peoria) is solidly in the top ten after 20.2 innings.

July 6th:

Buchter challenging Beliveau for third place. Buchter is now #1 in K/9.

And the highest number of strikeouts in the Cub minors goes to . . . Atkins (81).

Marco Carillo (Tennessee), with 25 innings pitched, enters the list at #10 or #12 (depending on whether you count Alburquerque and Hart).

July 14th:

Parker jumps over Beliveau, Buchter and Archer into 2nd place.

Williamson moves from 20th to 12th (not counting Alburquerque and Hart).

July 20th:

Buchter moves up to second place behind Gaub.

In the race to 100 strikeouts, Beliveau leads with 91; then Carpenter and Atkins with 90, and Archer with 87.

In K’s to BB’s, Huseby leads with an off-the-charts 13. Also with a K/BB ratio of 3 or above are Sommer, 5.25, Reinhard, 3.42, and DeLeon and Williamson, 3.00.

Sommer is lefty, as are Gaub, Buchter and Beliveau. Also lefty and with strong numbers is Sasser.

July 27th:

Huseby moves up from 6th to 3rd. Huseby tops the list in WHIP and K/BB.

Sasser up to 10th among pitchers who are still in the minors and still in the organization (Alburquerque was traded).

Cashner up to 11th.

August 3rd:

Gaub, who had been coasting for a while, is headed up again, with a Marmol Index (the good, half-walk-per-inning Marmol) just a hair below 6.

August 10th:

Gaub back up over 6.

Austin Bibens-Dirkx (Peoria) added.

Beliveau is first to 100 strikeouts. Atkins and Carpenter have 99, Archer 96.

The Marmol Index disregards walks, which is very helpful to Marmol and also to some pitchers on the list. We do have a K/BB column, and a few pitchers do very well in this department. Here are the pitching prospects with K/BB ratios over 3.

Bibens-Dirkx 10.00
Huseby 7.75
Sommer 6.33
De Leon 3.15
Papelbon 3.10

Pitchers with fewer walks tend to yield more hits. They’re just around the plate more and the bat meets the ball or vice-versa. Huseby is remarkable in that he does phenomenally well in the Marmol index and also in fewest walks–and also WHIP, of course. We might consider him our brightest pitching prospect, especially if he ever puts up similar numbers as a starter.

August 18th:

Jackson moves up four notches. Gaub and Buchter–already at the top–go higher.

August 31st:

Two weeks between updates. Cashner has taken a few lumps lately and drops from #12 on the list to #18.

I would say that Gaub and Parker, both aged 24 with excellent Iowa numbers, are instant call-ups when the Iowa season ends. Stevens will be recalled–Samardzija too, I suppose–and Reinhard may get a look. The age of a prospect is very relevant in September, since this is an up-or-out system. They have to do something with Reinhard, who is 26.

Jeremy Papelbon (AA) is also 26. Look for him in the Cub bullpen in September. His numbers in the Marmol index are misleading for two reasons: he is not a strikeout pitcher; and his second-half numbers have been brilliant. If you start the season July 1, his WHIP is below 1.

September 8th:

Craig Muschko added to list. I meant to do this earlier. He has numbers that put him in the top half of the list. For Marmol-index purposes, he is held down somewhat by fewer strikeouts than innings; but his K/BB is 4.47 and his WHIP a lovely 1.06.

These are final numbers. This list is final!

name team age round drafted/who traded for innings hits walks strikeouts k/bb h/9 k/9 whip k/9 – h/9
John Gaub Tenn-Iowa 24 DeRosa 60 36 33 80 2.42 5.40 12.00 1.15 6.60
Ryan Buchter Peoria 22 Matt Avery 61 36 34 79 2.32 5.31 11.66 1.15 6.34
Chris Huseby Peoria 21 2006 11th 54 43 10 73 7.30 7.17 12.17 0.98 5.00
Blake Parker Tenn-Iowa 24 2006 16th 63.1 44 35 77 2.20 6.25 10.94 1.25 4.69
Jeff Stevens Iowa 25 DeRosa 57.2 35 25 61 2.44 5.46 9.52 1.04 4.06
Jeff Beliveau Peoria 22 2008 18th 96.2 77 45 117 2.60 7.17 10.89 1.26 3.72
Chris Archer Peoria 20 DeRosa 109 78 66 119 1.80 6.44 9.83 1.32 3.39
Jeffry Antigua Boise-Peoria 19 2006 ndfa 68.2 49 19 68 3.58 6.42 8.91 0.99 2.49
Manolin De Leon Peoria 22 2006 ndfa 50.2 37 17 47 2.76 6.57 8.35 1.07 1.78
Greg Reinhard Iowa 26 Ryu 73 75 34 89 2.62 9.25 10.97 1.49 1.73
Jay Jackson Tenn-Day-Iowa 21 2008 9th 127 109 46 127 2.76 7.72 9.00 1.22 1.28
Chris Carpenter Peoria-Day-Tenn 23 2008 3rd 130.2 100 52 118 2.27 6.89 8.13 1.16 1.24
David Cales Day-Tenn-Day 22 2008 24th 72.2 62 24 66 2.75 7.68 8.17 1.18 0.50
Dustin Sasser Daytona-Tenn 23 2007 21st 78.1 58 35 61 1.74 6.66 7.01 1.19 0.34
Alex Maestri Tennessee 24 2006 ndfa 85.1 71 52 73 1.40 7.49 7.70 1.44 0.21
Andrew Cashner Daytona-Tenn 22 2008 1st 100.1 76 42 75 1.79 6.82 6.73 1.18 -0.09
Mike Perconte Peoria-Boise-Day 23 2008 ndfa 69 62 28 61 2.18 8.09 7.96 1.30 -0.13
Rafael Dolis Daytona 21 nondrafted fa 99.2 78 53 75 1.42 7.04 6.77 1.31 -0.27
Craig Muschko Daytona 24 2007 22nd 103.1 90 19 85 4.47 7.84 7.40 1.05 -0.44
Chris Siegfried Peoria-Day 23 2007 11th 61.1 55 31 51 1.65 8.07 7.48 1.40 -0.59
Austin Bibens-Dirkx Peoria 24 2006 16th (Mariners) 70.2 55 9 50 5.56 7.00 6.37 0.91 -0.64
Henry Williamson Day-Iowa-Day 23 Pie 91.2 100 35 92 2.63 9.82 9.03 1.47 -0.79
Marco Carillo Daytona-Tenn 22 2007 6th 52.1 52 29 46 1.59 8.94 7.91 1.55 -1.03
Luke Sommer Daytona 24 2007 30th 72 76 11 67 6.09 9.50 8.38 1.21 -1.13
Vince Perkins Tenn-Iowa 27 free agent 86.1 79 57 68 1.19 8.24 7.09 1.58 -1.15
Brian Schlitter Tennessee 23 Eyre 61.2 62 24 51 2.13 9.05 7.44 1.39 -1.61
Marcos Mateo Daytona-Tenn 25 Coats 106.1 101 45 77 1.71 8.55 6.52 1.37 -2.03
Dan McDaniel Daytona 21 2008 14th 92.1 101 49 79 1.61 9.84 7.70 1.62 -2.14
Mitch Atkins Iowa 23 2004 7th 146.1 164 52 127 2.44 10.09 7.81 1.48 -2.28
Jeff Samardzija Iowa 24 2006 5th 89 98 27 71 2.63 9.91 7.18 1.40 -2.73
Jayson Ruhlman Tenn-Iowa-Tenn 25 2005 23rd 61.2 65 28 46 1.64 9.49 6.71 1.51 -2.77
Kevin Kreier Peoria 22 2006 20th 74 73 20 47 2.35 8.88 5.72 1.26 -3.16
Erik Hamren Peoria 23 2008 37th 58.2 64 32 42 1.31 9.82 6.44 1.64 -3.38
Casey Coleman Tennessee 21 2008 15th 149 142 58 84 1.45 8.58 5.07 1.34 -3.50
Jeremy Papelbon Tenn-Iowa-Tenn 26 2006 19th 108.2 125 28 79 2.82 10.35 6.54 1.41 -3.81
Hung-Wen Chen Tennessee 23 ndfa 142.2 166 32 98 3.06 10.47 6.18 1.39 -4.29
Jose Pina Peoria-Day 23 2002 ndfa 60 71 36 39 1.08 10.65 5.85 1.78 -4.80
Jake Muyco Daytona-Tenn 24 2005 8th 63.2 77 25 43 1.72 10.88 6.08 1.60 -4.81
Casey Lambert Tenn-Iowa 23 2007 6th 96 111 32 53 1.66 10.41 4.97 1.49 -5.44