The Lou Brock Fan Club

Prospects are ranked according to my Marmol Index, strikeouts-per-nine-innings minus hits-per-nine-innings.

These are the best arms in the Cub minors, not necessarily the best pitchers. For one thing, I don’t use walks in the formula, although I list walks and calculate K/BB. Perhaps the Marmol Index slants toward relief pitchers, who throw harder when they’re out there and therefore get more strikeouts, and who can survive a few walks. Marmol himself walked a man per inning this season and got promoted to closer. Rich Hill, a starter, walked a man per inning last spring and fell out of the organization.

Casey Coleman won 14 games at Tennessee and will be a starting pitcher at Iowa next season at age 22. He doesn’t rank high according to the Marmol Index. Neither does Jeremy Papelbon, who only became a starter at midseason and had excellent numbers–including a WHIP below 1–in July and August. Hung-Wen Chen doesn’t show up well here, in spite of an excellent 3-to-1 K-to-BB ratio and a strong finish to the season. All three of these Tennessee starters will advance to Iowa.

It is worth noting, then, the starters who do perform well here, like Jeff Beliveau, Chris Archer, Jeffry Antigua, Jay Jackson and Chris Carpenter. The pitchers near the top of the list have sizzling stuff. That is what the Marmol Index is about.

Alberto Alburquerque, by the way, was in my top ten when he was traded to Colorado for Jeff Baker. I take exception when I hear it said that the Cubs got Baker for nothing.

Note, finally, that the DeRosa boys, Gaub, Stevens and Archer, are 1, 5 and 7 here.