2009 pitching prospects

Prospects are ranked according to my Marmol Index, strikeouts-per-nine-innings minus hits-per-nine-innings.

These are the best arms in the Cub minors, not necessarily the best pitchers. For one thing, I don’t use walks in the formula, although I list walks and calculate K/BB. Perhaps the Marmol Index slants toward relief pitchers, who throw harder when they’re out there and therefore get more strikeouts, and who can survive a few walks. Marmol himself walked a man per inning this season and got promoted to closer. Rich Hill, a starter, walked a man per inning last spring and fell out of the organization.

Casey Coleman won 14 games at Tennessee and will be a starting pitcher at Iowa next season at age 22. He doesn’t rank high according to the Marmol Index. Neither does Jeremy Papelbon, who only became a starter at midseason and had excellent numbers–including a WHIP below 1–in July and August. Hung-Wen Chen doesn’t show up well here, in spite of an excellent 3-to-1 K-to-BB ratio and a strong finish to the season. All three of these Tennessee starters will advance to Iowa.

It is worth noting, then, the starters who do perform well here, like Jeff Beliveau, Chris Archer, Jeffry Antigua, Jay Jackson and Chris Carpenter. The pitchers near the top of the list have sizzling stuff. That is what the Marmol Index is about.

Alberto Alburquerque, by the way, was in my top ten when he was traded to Colorado for Jeff Baker. I take exception when I hear it said that the Cubs got Baker for nothing.

Note, finally, that the DeRosa boys, Gaub, Stevens and Archer, are 1, 5 and 7 here.

name team age round drafted/who traded for innings hits walks strikeouts k/bb h/9 k/9 whip k/9 – h/9
John Gaub Tenn-Iowa 24 DeRosa 60 36 33 80 2.42 5.40 12.00 1.15 6.60
Ryan Buchter Peoria 22 Matt Avery 61 36 34 79 2.32 5.31 11.66 1.15 6.34
Chris Huseby Peoria 21 2006 11th 54 43 10 73 7.30 7.17 12.17 0.98 5.00
Blake Parker Tenn-Iowa 24 2006 16th 63.1 44 35 77 2.20 6.25 10.94 1.25 4.69
Jeff Stevens Iowa 25 DeRosa 57.2 35 25 61 2.44 5.46 9.52 1.04 4.06
Jeff Beliveau Peoria 22 2008 18th 96.2 77 45 117 2.60 7.17 10.89 1.26 3.72
Chris Archer Peoria 20 DeRosa 109 78 66 119 1.80 6.44 9.83 1.32 3.39
Jeffry Antigua Boise-Peoria 19 2006 ndfa 68.2 49 19 68 3.58 6.42 8.91 0.99 2.49
Manolin De Leon Peoria 22 2006 ndfa 50.2 37 17 47 2.76 6.57 8.35 1.07 1.78
Greg Reinhard Iowa 26 Ryu 73 75 34 89 2.62 9.25 10.97 1.49 1.73
Jay Jackson Tenn-Day-Iowa 21 2008 9th 127 109 46 127 2.76 7.72 9.00 1.22 1.28
Chris Carpenter Peoria-Day-Tenn 23 2008 3rd 130.2 100 52 118 2.27 6.89 8.13 1.16 1.24
David Cales Day-Tenn-Day 22 2008 24th 72.2 62 24 66 2.75 7.68 8.17 1.18 0.50
Dustin Sasser Daytona-Tenn 23 2007 21st 78.1 58 35 61 1.74 6.66 7.01 1.19 0.34
Alex Maestri Tennessee 24 2006 ndfa 85.1 71 52 73 1.40 7.49 7.70 1.44 0.21
Andrew Cashner Daytona-Tenn 22 2008 1st 100.1 76 42 75 1.79 6.82 6.73 1.18 -0.09
Mike Perconte Peoria-Boise-Day 23 2008 ndfa 69 62 28 61 2.18 8.09 7.96 1.30 -0.13
Rafael Dolis Daytona 21 nondrafted fa 99.2 78 53 75 1.42 7.04 6.77 1.31 -0.27
Craig Muschko Daytona 24 2007 22nd 103.1 90 19 85 4.47 7.84 7.40 1.05 -0.44
Chris Siegfried Peoria-Day 23 2007 11th 61.1 55 31 51 1.65 8.07 7.48 1.40 -0.59
Austin Bibens-Dirkx Peoria 24 2006 16th (Mariners) 70.2 55 9 50 5.56 7.00 6.37 0.91 -0.64
Henry Williamson Day-Iowa-Day 23 Pie 91.2 100 35 92 2.63 9.82 9.03 1.47 -0.79
Marco Carillo Daytona-Tenn 22 2007 6th 52.1 52 29 46 1.59 8.94 7.91 1.55 -1.03
Luke Sommer Daytona 24 2007 30th 72 76 11 67 6.09 9.50 8.38 1.21 -1.13
Vince Perkins Tenn-Iowa 27 free agent 86.1 79 57 68 1.19 8.24 7.09 1.58 -1.15
Brian Schlitter Tennessee 23 Eyre 61.2 62 24 51 2.13 9.05 7.44 1.39 -1.61
Marcos Mateo Daytona-Tenn 25 Coats 106.1 101 45 77 1.71 8.55 6.52 1.37 -2.03
Dan McDaniel Daytona 21 2008 14th 92.1 101 49 79 1.61 9.84 7.70 1.62 -2.14
Mitch Atkins Iowa 23 2004 7th 146.1 164 52 127 2.44 10.09 7.81 1.48 -2.28
Jeff Samardzija Iowa 24 2006 5th 89 98 27 71 2.63 9.91 7.18 1.40 -2.73
Jayson Ruhlman Tenn-Iowa-Tenn 25 2005 23rd 61.2 65 28 46 1.64 9.49 6.71 1.51 -2.77
Kevin Kreier Peoria 22 2006 20th 74 73 20 47 2.35 8.88 5.72 1.26 -3.16
Erik Hamren Peoria 23 2008 37th 58.2 64 32 42 1.31 9.82 6.44 1.64 -3.38
Casey Coleman Tennessee 21 2008 15th 149 142 58 84 1.45 8.58 5.07 1.34 -3.50
Jeremy Papelbon Tenn-Iowa-Tenn 26 2006 19th 108.2 125 28 79 2.82 10.35 6.54 1.41 -3.81
Hung-Wen Chen Tennessee 23 ndfa 142.2 166 32 98 3.06 10.47 6.18 1.39 -4.29
Jose Pina Peoria-Day 23 2002 ndfa 60 71 36 39 1.08 10.65 5.85 1.78 -4.80
Jake Muyco Daytona-Tenn 24 2005 8th 63.2 77 25 43 1.72 10.88 6.08 1.60 -4.81
Casey Lambert Tenn-Iowa 23 2007 6th 96 111 32 53 1.66 10.41 4.97 1.49 -5.44

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