With the late-July trading season approaching, the usual rule applies that you trade older, more expensive players at positions where you have a surplus. While I hope they make a few deals, this team does not need to be “blown up,” as some fans are saying. The Cubs won’t make the postseason, and the team is barely watchable, but I still think they are on the rise. I am not a disgruntled Cub fan.
In ways that matter, this is the healthiest Cub organization I have seen in my lifetime, simply because it has started to generate its own position players. One could argue that it did that successfully for a while in the sixties, which was well within my lifetime; but that was an oasis in the desert, nearly fifty years ago, and it was also something of a mirage. Maybe if they had held onto Brock . . .
It’s not a bad season when you bring up a Colvin, a Castro and a Cashner, and they all show definite signs of sticking. A couple more crops like this one and you’re the Tampa Bay Rays. This year they found a right fielder, a shortstop and a stopper (who in due time may be their ace). Next year we’ll see a new centerfielder and second baseman. 2012 will likely bring a new third baseman and–knock wood–a new face in left. There will be several other pitchers and several surprises. I don’t have an exact timetable, but at some point, like all good young teams this one will catch fire.
At the very least, I view the situation as hopeful, and I find that refreshing in itself. I don’t agree that hope springs eternal when you are a Cub fan. Hopelessness has been advisable for decades.
Many Cub fans, it appears, do not share my optimism, and are clamoring for the Cubs to 1) fire the manager, 2) fire the GM and 3) trade the veterans who are in free-agency years.
Fire the manager? Lou is in the final half-season of his contract and will depart at the end of the season in any case. Grant him a dignified exit. I have no issue at all with Lou. He changes the lineup every day because there is no good batting order for this bunch, especially with the 3 and 4 hitters mired in slumps. The only real top-of-the-order hitter on the team is 20 years old and Lou is trying to break him in gently, so he hits him eighth. Unfortunately, you are only allowed one #8 in the batting order, so there is the dilemma of what to do with Theriot and Fukudome. Only one position player in the opening-day lineup, Marlon Byrd, is having a good season. Fire the manager?
You could fire Jim Hendry, who would be the first to admit that Soriano, Fukudome, Bradley and Samardzija were terrible free agent signings. (Samardzija was drafted and not technically a free agent, but given his NFL opportunities, he had to be lured with free-agent dollars.) On the other hand, someone built the minor-league organization that is one of the better ones, if not one of the best, in baseball. The four teams from triple-A Iowa down to low-A Peoria are enjoying winning seasons, and more importantly, they are producing better-than-average major-league players.
In the past, the organization would produce just a small handful of position players in a decade, with an occasional all-star. The eighties were actually a little better than that, producing Jody Davis in ‘81, Joe Carter in ‘83, Dunston in ‘85, Palmeiro in ‘86, Grace in ‘88 and Girardi in ‘89. Among them, these six had seventeen all-star appearances. Unfortunately, eight of Carter’s and Palmeiro’s nine appearances were in other than Cub uniforms, and the late-eighties and early-nineties teams never panned out. Then a funny thing happened around 1990. The well ran dry. Soto, the next homegrown position-playing all-star, came along in 2008, nineteen years after Girardi. It was in the context of this talent dearth that Jim Hendry embarked on his spending spree in 2006-07.
Today you have Colvin and Castro with a shot at being stars, and Brett Jackson maybe making the team out of spring training next season, or sooner if the GM can make a few bold moves. Others are on the way, including a #3 pick. Hendry signed Wilken and Fleita and the managers and coaches and scouts. With his mixed record in free-agent deals and with conservative new ownership, Hendry will not be tempted by marquee free agents. He set the new tone last winter when he worked hard on smaller-scale but successful deals for Silva and Byrd.
On balance, then, Hendry should stay. The team is going to improve whether he stays or goes. Hendry might as well get some credit for it, since it was his judgment, his spadework, his people that rebuilt the organization.
Hendry does have one serious problem going forward. He is on the hook for the remaining years of Soriano’s contract, which I don’t think the Cubs can realistically honor. They have to honor the contract in terms of paying it, but I don’t think they can trade Soriano and I don’t think they can keep him. Nor do I see how the Cubs can eat that large amount of money–counting down from $136 million, one drip at a time, like chemotherapy, it’s about $80 million today–without the GM who signed the contract being required to fall on his sword. Soriano may be the end of Hendry. For me, that will be a bit of a shame. Hendry’s leaving will not make the Cubs better.
A few months ago in a fit of wishful thinking, I wrote about the possibility of Soriano approaching 30 HRs this year and next year, and actually becoming tradeable after the 2011 season, when there will be $54 million to go on the contract, with the Cubs perhaps willing to pay $35 million. The concept is that someone might pay $10 million a year for two years for an aging Soriano if the Cubs were willing to pay $35, including the entire $18 in the third year. That will be the eighth year of the horrendous contract given to this dim bulb out in left field. Whether Hendry can survive that multimillion-dollar hit depends on how the Cubs are looking at the time. I remain optimistic.
The two significant players who will be entering free agency are Lee and Lilly. Lee is hitting .237, with 73 strikeouts(!) before the end of June. He has some trade value. The problem with trading Lee is that the Cubs are not grooming Lee’s replacement at first base, as they are at several other positions. For the most part, Tim Wilken doesn’t draft slugging corner infielders. Apart from pitchers, the pre-Wilken Cubs used to draft primarily slugging corner infielders, people like Fox and Hoffpauir and Sing and Dopirak and McGehee and Choi and Dubois. Wilken drafts shortstops and centerfielders and catchers. From those, he derives corner outfielders and second, first and third basemen. It’s unclear who would play first the day after Lee was traded. Perhaps it would be Nady, but he is on a one-year deal that won’t be renewed. Who plays first next year? The best Wilken draftee for the position is Rebel Ridling, but he is in high A ball. At Tennessee you have Blake Lalli, a decent middle-of-the order hitter with a .300 lifetime minor-league BA. At Iowa, it’s Hoffpauir or LaHair. I still think Hoffpauir could put up decent numbers if he played every day, but he can’t accomplish what Lee did last year, and may do again next year.
In explaining why he thought Zambrano had scuffled with the wrong teammate, Carlos Silva called Lee “a special guy.” I agree with Silva. If you could sign Lee for not-too-many years and not-too-much money, you would be a better team as a result. Colvin would look good in Lee’s slot in the batting order, so Lee’s status as the focal point of the offense should be adjusted downward. Lee would not have to play every day, as he does now. Pay him accordingly. The key point is that there is no real pressure from below Lee in the organization.
Ted Lilly is considered a valuable trading chip. The problem, again, is that there is not much pressure being exerted on Lilly from within the organization. The only lefty starter in the high minors is J.R. Mathes, who I don’t think will ever throw a pitch in the majors. Lilly has been a number 1 or number 2 starter. Unless you like Gorzellany, or you think Sean Marshall is ready to step up, the team gets worse on the day Lilly departs. I actually think Marshall might be ready. In any case, Lilly may be in high demand, which will give the Cubs no choice but to let him go. If they expect to let him go after the season, then certainly they should trade him now.
In principle, I’m all for trading Ryan Theriot, but Theriot is 15 for 18 in stolen bases, and I would expect a new second baseman to make up those SBs, which Fontenot and Baker can’t do. The Cubs are pitifully slow, although with Colvin and Castro they are moving in the right direction. Darwin Barney is a singles hitter who doesn’t steal bases. Hak-Ju Lee is a few years away. The player I like the most to fill Theriot’s shoes is LeMahieu, who is at Daytona but could be called up to Tennessee tomorrow. LeMahieu slumped early this season but after hitting .340 in June, he has brought his BA up over .290. LeMahieu stole 3 bases after the Cubs drafted him last June, but this year he is a running man: 11 of 15 bases stolen. Apparently he has read the job description for Theriot’s replacement. What I most like about LeMahieu is the 50th run batted in on June 29, which projects to 80 for the season. LeMahieu is a run producer. His season average with RISP is .340. He doesn’t hit home runs, but I believe that is because he is an opposite-field hitter. Depending on how soon LeMahieu gets to AA, and how well he does there, the Cubs could contemplate trading Theriot in the offseason. Other near-term candidates for Theriot’s job are Flaherty and Tony Thomas, who is quietly having a productive season at Tennessee. Flaherty is hitting well at Daytona but needs to prove himself at the next level. He is not a base stealer but projects as a power-hitting middle infielder.
I would offer Soto for trade. Hill is a better catcher. So is Castillo, who is having something of a breakout year at the plate in Iowa. Third string would be Chirinos, who over the past season and a half (plus a winter season in Venezuela where he was 2nd MVP) has hit like Soto did at Iowa in ‘07. Soto is a nice player and would fetch a nice return. The key is that he is replaceable immediately.
Post a Comment