This is a new prospect-rating system, adapted from my recent player-value ratings that yielded dollar values for major leaguers. In that system, an offensive player earned points for total bases, walks and stolen bases. Why those particular numbers? Because, as I explained at the time,
They are the means by which a player gets around the bases, in the direction of home, under his own power, without help from the defense (except the pitcher) or from the batters behind him.
In the table below, prospects earn points for each total base, walk or SB. I adjust total points by subtracting the number of games played. Then I divide the adjusted points by games played. A score of one or higher means that you earned 2 or more points per game. In an average game, in other words, you had two or more total bases, walks or steals. Zero or higher means that you earned one or more point per game. 17 players (in this first tabulation on May 18th) have scores above 1, while 26 are below that score.
Think of a score of 1 as a promotability threshold. Hitters above that line will merit a promotion in midseason. Such promotions allow a real prospect to move up quickly. Borderline prospects wait till the end of the season and then hope for a social promotion (to keep the group together, etc).
A few notes on the results:
Matt Spencer, lefty-hitting 1B/OF acquired from Oakland in the Fox deal, was a good acquisition.
Justin Bour, lefty-hitting first baseman for Peoria, is the minor-league “rookie” (first full year in pro ball) highest in the rankings.
Darwin Barney has a nice BA at Iowa but his hits are mostly singles and he doesn’t walk or steal much. This holds his score down. Hak-Ju Lee has a low BA but a fair number of walks and steals, so he scores higher than Barney.
When you think about trading major-leaguers, you look at the pressure that is being generated below them in the organization. I have been saying that Theriot is tradeable–and certainly Castro brushed him aside easily–but nobody in the system seems to want Theriot’s second-base job. I was expecting better seasons out of Flaherty and LeMahieu, and I thought Lee and Watkins would be in a bigger rush. Theriot can continue to hold off Scales and Barney.
The real pressure is in the outfield and behind the plate. Six of the top eight hitting prospects here are outfielders, while #2 and #12 are catchers. Accordingly, I expect Fukudome to be traded any month now, and I continue to believe that Geovany Soto is prime trade bait. The fact that a player is hitting well makes a trade more, not less, likely.
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