Hitting prospects 2012

This is a ranking system that considers a base that is stolen to be as valid a unit of offensive production as a base that is attained any other way. It takes the sum of total bases + walks + SBs, adjusts it slightly, and divides by games played to arrive at a score, according to which the players are ranked. (Hitting prospects are starters, not pinch hitters or defensive replacements, so dividing by games is about as valid as dividing by at-bats or plate appearances.)

The adjustment represented by the “adj points” column is Points minus Games. This adjustment rests on the idea that one total base (or walk or SB) per game is a baseline, required to get you to zero.

As with “Pitching Prospects 2012,” this table will be updated regularly (at least every two weeks) and will be accessible by a link in the right margin of this page.

My initial reaction to the rankings is that Brett Jackson, in spite of his higher level of strikeouts, is about as productive as ever before; and that Geiger, Baez, Hoilman and DeVoss are welcome new names in the upper reaches (1.20 and above) of the rankings. I omit Perez and Rohan from those congratulations since they are a bit old for their levels.

In the past I have included Boise stats only in combination with Peoria numbers, after a player has been promoted. I expect to continue that practice. Boise always seems like a small data sample, whereas the promotion adds weight to the Boise numbers.

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