Cub baserunning stats

I’ve written a software program that combs through game logs and gathers baserunning data. The table below gives baserunning statistics for Cub regulars in games through August, 2008.

The stats are divided into five columns, plus a sixth column for cumulative stats. Here is a description of the five baserunning results being monitored.

1) runner on first, second unoccupied, batter hits a single. Does the runner get to third or does he stop at second?

2) runner on first, batter hits a double. Does the runner reach home or stop at third?

3) runner on second, batter hits a single. Does the runner score or stop at third?

4) runner on third with less than two outs. Does the runner score in the inning?

5) runner on first with none out and no one on second. Does the runner score in the inning?

I discussed #5 when I presented 2007 Cub stats last April:

I especially like number five because it’s where a player’s speed and savvy are the most highly leveraged. A speed player has this insight into one of baseball’s mysterious secrets: if you’re on first with none out, you can score even if the three hitters behind you make outs.

The number columns are given in sets of threes, where the first number indicates success, the second, opportunities, and the third, percent success against opportunities. So for example, column 1 is number of times going from first to third on a single; column 2 is number of times on first when the batter singled; and column 3 is #1 (x100) divided by #2. The final three columns on the right are total successes, total opportunities, and cumulative rate of success.

I will try to follow this up in the next week or two with stats for other NL teams, league leaders, etc.

Cubs 2008 baserunning through August:

1. 1st->3rd on single 2. score from 1st on double 3. score from 2nd on single 4. score from 3rd, < 2 out 5. score from 1st, 0 out 6. totals
Johnson 6 16 38% 4 8 50% 9 11 82% 12 16 75% 18 22 82% 49 73 67%
Theriot 9 18 50% 7 12 58% 15 20 75% 32 41 78% 23 55 42% 86 146 59%
Fontenot 7 13 54% 1 4 25% 6 10 60% 10 11 91% 2 10 20% 26 48 54%
DeRosa 4 21 19% 6 15 40% 10 17 59% 28 29 97% 20 47 43% 68 129 53%
Soriano 4 12 33% 2 4 50% 6 14 43% 23 29 79% 10 28 36% 45 87 52%
Fukudome 5 21 24% 6 8 75% 14 18 78% 12 20 60% 17 38 45% 54 105 51%
Ramirez 5 18 28% 2 11 18% 8 18 44% 25 36 69% 22 43 51% 62 126 49%
Lee 6 29 21% 5 12 42% 8 14 57% 23 30 77% 13 36 36% 55 121 45%
Edmonds 4 11 36% 1 3 33% 3 4 75% 7 13 54% 6 17 35% 21 48 44%
Soto 0 8 0% 5 10 50% 3 9 33% 11 16 69% 6 30 20% 25 73 34%

Looking at the data . . .

We knew that Soto and probably Edmonds were slowpokes, but Derrek Lee has also lost a couple of steps.

Ramirez is not in the bottom group.

DeRosa does more on the bases than I would have thought. His 28 out of 29 runs scored after getting to third with less than two outs is one of two remarkable results in the table. The other is Reed Johnson’s scoring 82 percent of the time–18 runs in 22 chances–after getting on first with nobody out.

Maybe Johnson should be the everyday centerfielder. Doesn’t he do the things that Felix Pie was supposed to do?

The Hoffpauir dilemma

Check out this syllogism:

Hoffpauir is putting up numbers at Iowa this season that are reminiscent of Soto’s breakout season last year.

Soto has put up numbers at Chicago in 2008 that track closely with those of Derrek Lee.

Therefore, the Cubs should seriously consider trading Lee in the offseason and going with Hoffpauir (plus maybe some combo of Ward/Dubois) at first in 2009.

Remember that this is not merely a comparison of Hoffpauir versus Lee, it’s Hoffpauir plus whatever bounty that Lee would bring in a trade versus Lee.

Here are the latest two Cubs to tear up the PCL:

pa ab h r rbi 2b 3b hr ab/hr pa/hr ab/2b pa/2b r/pa rbi/pa ba obp slg ops
Soto (2007) 449 385 136 75 109 31 3 26 14.81 17.27 12.42 14.48 .167 .243 .353 .424 .652 1.076
Hoffpauir (2008) 253 244 89 56 89 30 0 23 10.61 11 8.13 8.43 .221 .352 .365 .394 .770 1.164

Now here are Soto and Lee against the same pitching in 2008:

pa ab h r rbi 2b 3b hr ab/hr pa/hr ab/2b pa/2b r/pa rbi/pa ba obp slg ops
Soto 458 399 114 51 69 29 1 18 22.17 25.44 13.76 15.79 .111 .151 .286 .367 .499 .866
Lee 554 496 144 78 71 31 3 17 29.18 32.59 16 17.87 .141 .128 .290 .357 .468 .825

If we didn’t know it already, Soto’s success at the major-league level should tell us that PCL numbers signify something. There are always plenty of sluggers in AAA but sluggers with high BAs are harder to find. There is really only one hitter in the PCL who is at all comparable to Hoffpauir–Nelson Cruz of Oklahoma (Texas), .344/.434/.710/1.144, with 37 home runs. Memo to the Rangers: you have a Nelson Cruz dilemma. Batting-average-wise, Cruz is having a breakout season at about the same age as Hoffpauir, but Hoffpauir had a terrific year in 2007, also.

So a triple-A league with representatives from 16 ML teams has these two stick-out sluggers.

I have to acknowledge that no one will replace D. Lee on defense, especially when the other infielders are making off-target throws. And Lee has certain intangibles–he’s so calm and quiet, he leads by example, and so forth–the importance of which are hard to gauge. Balanced against those are two tangibles: he has very high trade value and his offensive numbers are not terribly hard to replace.

Cub fans love Derrek Lee. I’m fond of him myself, but you don’t trade a player because you don’t like him. You trade a player because you have someone else on the team who can roughly duplicate his production on the field, but can’t come near duplicating his value in the marketplace.

Are we sure that the solution to the Hoffpauir dilemma is to trade the minor leaguer?

Fontenot versus Fukudome

Five weeks ago I wrote a post suggesting that Mike Fontenot might begin to squeeze Mark DeRosa at second base.

Fontenot’s numbers have improved since then, but DeRosa has responded in kind and will probably crack the fifteen home-run barrier for the first time in his career this season. DeRosa’s RBI and OBP numbers are high, like last year.

The player being squeezed is Fukudome. Whenever Fontenot goes into the starting lineup, Lou Piniella must decide whether to play DeRosa or Fukudome in right. If Fukudome sits for DeRosa, nobody notices that he’s really sitting for Fontenot, who has none of the stature of a veteran player with a fat contract. At $12 million/year, Fukudome only makes three-and-a-quarter times the salary of DeRosa, whereas he makes almost twenty-seven times what Fontenot earns ($450 K).

Piniella doesn’t really care about who is making what, except as it reflects on his boss Jim Hendry, who negotiated the contracts. Whichever businessman buys the Cubs in the next few months will notice the return the Cubs are getting on all their investments. So Fukudome is still in the lineup almost every day. But with Felix Pie-like numbers since July 1st (.212/.286/.336 for Fukudome versus .222/.286/.286 for Pie while he was up in 2008), can Fukudome stay in the lineup much longer?

Edmonds has been workmanlike (.260/.379/.644) since July 1 and Reed Johnson has been hot (.387/.426/.613), so the option of moving Fukudome to center is no longer interesting.

Fukudome is really a rookie, and he seems to have hit the same rookie wall that Fontenot hit in July last year. Fontenot came out of his funk, but not until 2008.

Here are 2008 numbers for Fontenot and Fukudome.

pa ab h r rbi 2b 3b hr ab/hr pa/hr ab/2b pa/2b r/pa rbi/pa ba obp slg ops
Fontenot 204 175 51 34 30 16 1 8 21.88 25.50 10.94 12.75 .167 .147 .291 .383 .531 .914
Fukudome 467 397 108 67 42 22 3 8 49.63 58.38 18.05 21.23 .143 .090 .272 .372 .403 .775

These guys can hit a little

This is a list of Cub minor leaguers (Peoria and higher) who, through Sunday, Aug. 3, had hit ten home runs or batted .330 or above. Of the four hitters with .330+ averages, only two, Craig and Deeds, have fewer than ten home runs, and they have nine. They certainly belong on a list of players who can hit a little. Two other players in the system have nine home runs and lower batting averages, and are not on the list: Russ Canzler and Dylan Johnston.

Players are ranked here according to SLG. Numbers have been combined when a player has split the season between two or three teams. In the case of split seasons, teams are listed chronologically left to right. In other words, Craig was promoted while Fox was demoted.

ba ab h 2b hr rbi ab/hr slg
Micah Hoffpauir Iowa .356 191 68 26 14 67 13.64 .712
Jason Dubois Columbus/Iowa .282 259 73 13 24 57 10.79 .610
Luis Bautista Peoria .336 235 79 18 11 41 21.36 .562
Matt Craig Tennessee/Iowa .339 177 60 12 9 31 19.67 .559
Jake Fox Iowa/Tennessee .292 408 111 35 22 82 18.55 .529
Brandon Guyer Peoria .280 232 65 23 10 28 23.20 .526
Josh Kroeger Iowa .305 341 104 30 13 55 26.23 .525
Doug Deeds Tennessee .334 341 114 32 9 46 37.89 .525
Blake Lalli Peoria/Daytona/Tennessee .320 341 109 35 11 61 31.00 .519
Koyie Hill Iowa .296 291 86 20 14 53 20.79 .515
Marquez Smith Peoria/Daytona .287 383 110 23 15 61 25.53 .491
Bobby Scales Iowa .309 320 99 14 12 49 26.67 .478
Yusuf Carter Daytona .237 249 59 16 12 37 20.75 .454
Casey McGehee Iowa .281 399 112 23 11 70 36.27 .421
Tyler Colvin Tennessee .239 431 103 20 11 62 39.18 .394

Stat tables are useful because you can stare at them and look for something to jump out at you, like Jason Dubois’ home run per 10.79 at bats, or Blake Lalli’s 35 doubles, or Micah Hoffpauir’s . . . everything.

Which of these players will be called up in September? Hoffpauir for sure, or there is no justice. Koyie Hill, because he’s a catcher who can bat from the left side whose defense the Cubs trust. Anybody else? No one from Peoria, that’s for sure. Daytona is barely represented here. (How do they score runs and win games?) Tennessee? Doug Deeds, maybe, but he’ll have to compete with Josh Kroeger for a spot that may not exist after Hoffpauir moves up. Jake Fox has made some noise with the bat this season but he’ll have to compete with Dubois and Craig for a spot that almost surely will exist: the Cubs can’t be satisfied with Blanco and Cedeno as righty pinch-hitting options.

As a rule, I don’t like players who hit less than .300 in AAA, since .295 can turn to .245 in the majors, and that doesn’t cut it. Geo Soto lost 70 points on his batting average but he could afford it. So you look for the ones who combine BA and slugging, like Hoffpauir and Craig among the Iowa hitters, and Deeds, Lalli and Bautista among the rest.

Is Guyer the guy?

Doing anything on Tuesday, July 29th? Go to Wrigley and watch the Peoria Chiefs under Ryne Sandberg as they host the Kane County Cougars in a Midwest League game. The Chiefs are winning lately and are loaded with what seem to be real prospects. I would love to get a peek at the following players, at least: Rebel Ridling, Brandon Guyer, Luis Bautista, Jay Jackson and Nate Samson.

Ridling was drafted in June out of Oklahoma State, where he was second in the Big 12 in HRs and RBI. He had 8 doubles and 4 HRs at Boise (1.060 OPS) before being moved up to Peoria. Yesterday, in his first game at home, he hit what the Chiefs’ PA announcer described as the second longest bomb he had seen hit at O’Brien Field. Rather than describe Ridling, I’ll send you to a story with a picture that shows him being congratulated by his new teammates. The first thing you’ll notice is that Ridling is bigger than they are. So far, he appears to be a guy you want in the lineup but not necessarily in the field, even at 1st base.

Guyer was drafted in the fifth round out of UVa last year. After the Cubs signed him, he spent two months rehabbing a shoulder injury that he incurred late in his college career. He didn’t get to Boise till August 18th. This year began with a two-month rehab for a stress fracture in his right elbow. So it’s taken him a while to get going. Normally I wouldn’t write about someone hitting .274, but Guyer was at .235 on July 1st. He has 19 doubles and 7 home runs and has slugged .508. He also has 12 stolen bases, an intriguing number for a guy with some pop. So far he’s a left fielder, although he played some center for Boise. At Virginia he had a reputation for spectacular catches, several of the wall-banging variety, which may help explain all the rehabbing. Just last night, this happened:

With runners at first and second and two out in the sixth, Brandon Guyer made a leaping catch against the wall on Kevin Ehrens’ slice down the left-field line to end the inning and keep it 1-0.

“I can’t say enough about that play,” [pitcher Jay] Jackson said. “For him to be able to do that at that point in the game was huge.”

It would be nice if the Cubs could solve their centerfield problem the same way they dealt with their catching problem–from within. Edmonds, as good as he’s been, is a band-aid. He may help us this year and part of next year, but that’s it. Pie and Colvin have not demonstrated the ability to put the bat on the ball. 2007 draftees Ty Wright and Jonathan Wyatt (Peoria’s CFer) are also on the org chart, but there’s not much pop in the group that includes those two plus Reed Johnson and Sam Fuld.

Best case, Pie and Colvin reinvent themselves in the next six weeks, Ty Wright flashes the power that he demonstrated when he hit 8 HRs in Boise in 2007, and Jonathan Wyatt hits a few more long ones like last night’s. (“The shot went over the picnic area and hit the netting protecting Adams Street.”) But maybe at some point, Brandon Guyer moves to the head of this class?

Drafted in 2007 out of Florida International, Bautista looks like another slugging catcher in a crowded field that includes Welington Castillo, Blake Lalli and Steve Clevenger, not to mention Geo Soto. They should all keep swinging, since a catcher can always play first (especially when he is 6′4″ like Bautista) and can sometimes play third or even outfield. In 181 at bats this season, Bautista is hitting a cool .354 with 17 doubles, 10 HRs, 34 RBI and a 1.025 OPS.

Jay Jackson is a righty pitcher drafted last month out of Furman. He didn’t stay long at Boise, in spite of giving up 5 runs in 9 innings. Maybe it was the 14 strikeouts against a single walk that bought him a ticket to Peoria, where, in 11.1 innings, he has yielded 11 hits and 3 runs while walking 3 and striking out 16.

At .303 in 333 at bats, shortstop Nate Samson has the highest BA among players at Peoria with 200 at bats, and that includes Marquez Smith’s .295 (in 315 ABs) before he moved up to Daytona. So far, Samson’s power, speed and glove are not impressive. He is in the mid 20’s in errors. Still, it’s unusual for me, as a Cub watcher, to find a shortstop in the low minors who can hit. Usually they learn to hit later, if at all. Samson gets hits every day.

How to solve Marmol’s problem (and Wuertz’s)

I wrote recently that Larry Rothschild had a one-dimensional view of pitching. Here are some recent comments of his (from Cub Bits by Paul Sullivan over the weekend) that can be placed in evidence:

Pitching coach Larry Rothschild said Michael Wuertz needs to work on his slider after being demoted to Triple-A Iowa.

“He needs some mound time to get the slider back,” he said. “That’s his pitch, and it hadn’t been quite the same lately. Overall this year, it has been hard to figure out. But I think if he gets down there and throws it enough, he’ll figure it out.”

But maybe it’s Wuertz’s other pitch, his fastball, that hasn’t been “quite the same lately.” And I would diagnose Carlos Marmol as having the same problem as Wuertz: a deteriorating fastball that has led to deteriorating confidence in what is, after all, every pitcher’s primary pitch. Breaking balls are considered secondary pitches. A slider may be your “out” pitch, but that doesn’t mean you throw it all the time. It is still secondary.

Marmol’s slider is breaking crisply but his fastball is not humming. Remember when he threw 96-97? He has pitched a lot of innings this season, but that just means he has thrown a lot of sliders. Marmol’s neglect of his fastball goes back to last season, toward the end of which Len Kasper referred to him as “slider happy.” This has become a recurrent theme in the booth: watching Marmol struggle last week, Bob Brenly used the term “slidermania.” This is criticism of the coach more than of the player, and it is unusual over the air, especially when you consider that Kasper and Brenly and Rothschild are Tribune colleagues.

Imagine if Kerry Wood stopped throwing fastballs, or if Rich Harden went out there and threw eighty percent changeups/splitters. But these guys have been power pitchers for years, and they know what their primary pitch is. Marmol and Wuertz did not see themselves as power pitchers and were more likely to be corrupted by their coach. Corrupted is a strong word, but these are desperate times in the Cub bullpen. Wuertz’s career, spent entirely under Rothschild, is a train wreck, and Marmol is heading down the same track.

If you don’t think that throwing more fastballs makes your arm stronger, please explain how Bob Howry adds a mile or mile-and-a-half per month to his MPH for the first three months of every season? Howry’s 95-mph fastball is behind schedule this year, by the way, probably because he’s throwing a lot of sliders for the first time. It makes you wonder whether throwing a lot of offspeed pitches is just a sign of laziness.

A quick cure for Marmol and Wuertz would be to give them starts. Make them pitch four or five innings in a row every fifth or sixth day. No starter is going to go out there in the first couple of innings and throw eighty percent breaking balls, no matter what bad habits he has acquired in the bullpen. This medicine worked very well for Ryan Dempster.

Who is Blake Lalli?

Lalli may be the most interesting recent undrafted free-agent signee in the Cub organization. Undrafted free agent: that probably means that a scout liked him but couldn’t convince Tim Wilken to use one of his several dozen draft picks on him. You have to love it when one of these walk-ons gives evidence that he might be sticking around a while.

Signed in 2006, Lalli played at Peoria last year and at Daytona this year. Just a couple of days ago he was promoted to Tennessee (AA). At Daytona he has played first base and batted cleanup, with these tabular results:

ab r h 2b 3b hr rbi bb so ba obp slg
Blake Lalli Daytona 237 25 79 26 0 7 42 17 28 .333 .381 .532

Early in the season, Lalli was called upon to pitch a couple of times, and on at least one occasion, little-league-style, he finished a game on the mound that he had started at first base. Apparently they were toying with the idea of converting him to a pitcher. As long as a guy is hitting, though, they don’t do that particular conversion, and Lalli continued to hit, so the pitching experiment ended.

Instead, they seem to be converting him to catcher. He has played catcher exclusively for a couple of weeks. His work behind the plate in that brief period has been notable for a couple of things: he caught an entire 20-inning game; and in his last game at Daytona he threw out four guys on the bases.

Tim Wilken is known for liking guys who play up-the-middle positions, and nothing is more up-the-middle than catcher. Suddenly, the Cub organization is awash with catchers who can hit, most notably Welington Castillo at Tennessee, Steve Clevenger at Daytona and Luis Bautista at Peoria. Clevenger started the season at AA but was demoted. Castillo and now Lalli have moved ahead of him. Clevenger and Lalli both swing lefty.

Here is where it gets interesting. Paul Sullivan wrote the other day that Lou should play Henry Blanco and spell Soto more often. But Lou prizes at-bats and doesn’t like to give them away to a sub-.230 career hitter. Blanco is a nice enough fellow, and the Cubs seem to like having him around to mentor younger players. I wouldn’t be surprised if they bring him in as a minor-league coach or manager when his playing career is over. For Piniella, that can’t happen soon enough. Lou would love to have a backup catcher who can hit, and a lefty swinger would be a real bonus. Nothing will happen till September since–you guessed it–Blanco has a fat contract (soon to expire). But when the rosters open in September, look for a catcher to be the first call-up.

And keep an eye on Blake Lalli.

Relax, Jim, you’re trying too hard

Not a good trade. I wouldn’t trade Gallagher, period, and certainly not for a pitcher who, Broglio-like, comes with duct tape included.

The argument that “this is the year” and we have to pull out all the stops, etc., is a child’s argument–or a sportswriter’s. Its logic dictates that the Cubs should have traded Soto for Jason Kendall in 2007, because a) Kendall was going to play anyway, b) you couldn’t have a rookie in the playoffs and c) 2007 was all that mattered. That last point rings a little hollow here in 2008. News flash: the Cubs are going to field a team in 2009 and beyond.

Hendry’s determination over eight months to trade his one real prospect suggests to me that he would have traded Soto if someone had asked. Other GMs probably were wary of Soto’s overnight PCL success. So the one really bright star to come up through the system as a position player was never really a prospect, otherwise he would have been traded. Same with Marmol.

The guy Beane did ask for in return for Kendall was the Cubs’ best pitcher in the minors last season, Jerry Blevins, who was double-A at the time but is now a teammate of Gallagher’s on the A’s.

In terms of pulling out all the stops in 2008, people assume too readily that Beane is writing off this season. That would be a strange thing to do when you’re in second place, six out before the all-star break. It’s likely that Beane just thinks that Gallagher will be a better pitcher–this year–than Harden. To me, that’s a believable scenario. It could happen.

Harden is only 26 and I suppose he could put his arm problems behind him at some point. Hendry could get lucky. But luck doesn’t usually follow people who act compulsively, as Hendry often does while spending and dealing. “The Cubs were pretty aggressive,” said the always-cool Beane.

I wonder how Tim Wilken feels this morning about Donaldson being thrown in. Donaldson wasn’t hitting, so Hendry only had Wilken’s word for it that the kid was going to be good.

Fontenot versus DeRosa

As a longtime Fontenot fan, I thought today might be a good day to post this.

A lot of Cub fans (on the blogs, at least) seem to consider Fontenot a left-handed version of Ryan Theriot, and they wonder why Lou plays him, sometimes at the expense of DeRosa. Actually, Fontenot is a left-handed version of DeRosa, with more speed and perhaps a little more power. (Lou likes speed and power.) Remember also that Fontenot is well shy of 400 major-league at bats while DeRosa is a seasoned veteran who has never hit fifteen home runs in a season. Fontenot may have more consistent power than he’s shown. Here are the 2008 numbers.

pa ab h r rbi 2b 3b hr hr/ab hr/pa 2b/ab 2b/pa r/pa rbi/pa ba obp slg
Fontenot 139 121 31 23 16 10 0 5 .041 .036 .083 .072 .165 .115 .256 .343 .463
DeRosa 320 272 79 49 45 14 0 10 .037 .031 .051 .044 .153 .141 .290 .379 .452

When you have two of something, and the late-July trading season is approaching, you might want to consider trading one of them, especially the older one. I always considered DeRosa a bad fit on the Cubs. He’s a natural third baseman with offensive numbers that look good on a third baseman, but he’s on a team where third base is covered. Second base is where you usually want to inject some speed into the lineup. A second baseman with DeRosa’s speed tends to make the whole lineup slow. But he should have real value for a team looking for someone to play third.

What’s the quickest way to St. Louis from DesMoines?

On June 24th, I mentioned three pitchers performing well in the low- to mid-minors: Jordan Latham, Blake Parker and Casey Lambert.

Parker got a call to Iowa last weekend to help out with back-to-back doubleheaders. It’s a pretty good callup when you jump over two teams. He’s obviously on the organization’s radar. Yesterday, Parker was reassigned to Daytona, still a promotion from Peoria. A recently converted catcher, Parker was the winning pitcher in the recent Midwest League all-star game. Here is a newspaper account of his performance in that game:

[Tim] Smith easily could have shared the [MVP] award with Peoria right-hander Blake Parker. The reliever came on in the ninth and got out of a one-out jam with runners on second and third, then struck out the side in the bottom of the 10th to earn the victory.

I should have mentioned Dumas Garcia, who has just received his second promotion this season, to Iowa, where closers have been auditioning lately–Ascanio successfully, Pignatiello and Brower less so–for the parent team. Garcia had these numbers at Daytona and Tennessee:

name club inn hits runs er bb k era whip k/inn k/bb
Dumas Garcia Daytona-Tenn 48 22 12 12 21 42 2.25 0.90 0.88 2.00

Lou has been saying that he wants another power arm in the bullpen. Garcia might be the guy.

Meanwhile, with our left fielder on the DL, how long can the Cubs keep Jason Dubois (11 HRs in 86 at bats) down on the farm?