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Tradeable

When it develops its own players, a solid baseball organization also produces tradeable veterans. Tradeability is something of a foreign concept to Cub fans. It does not apply to high-profile flops, players you wish had never come in the door. Cub fans are quite familiar with players of that sort. Recent examples are Soriano, Fukudome, Bradley. Your wanting to trade them does not make them tradeable. An example of a tradeable player would be Ryan Theriot, a longtime hard-working, popular Cub in his prime.

As has been noted elsewhere, Jim Hendry recently seemed to put a time limit on the Cubs’ continued appreciation of Theriot, when he said, “He’ll be an important part of the club this year.” Sounds like this might be Theriot’s last season with the team. Are the Cubs mad at him, or disappointed in him? Not at all. They just don’t expect him to survive the scramble for middle-infield positions represented by Castro, Lee, LeMahieu, Flaherty and others. When the Cubs trade him, Theriot will be just turning thirty-one, a starter for four years, a player who in 2009 received more all-star votes than Derrek Lee.

When is the last time that rising talent on the farm exerted pressure on the Cubs to trade an established player in his prime? To ponder this question is to understand fairly comprehensively what has been wrong with this team all these years.

Hendry said recently on radio that

He thinks the system is much better now and believes it is in the top ten … thanks to the work done by Tim Wilken, Oneri Fleita and Jose Serra.

Serra is the scout in the DR who signed Castro. Very soon, Hendry will also want to acknowledge the Pacific-rim scout or scouts who lined up Hak-Ju Lee and other top prospects in Korea and Taiwan. Tim Wilken, the scouting chief and drafter-in-chief, has set an organizational goal of finding positional prospects who play up the middle. Wilken’s theory seems to be that players who are corner outfielders and corner infielders as amateurs lack the defensive skills to compete in the majors. Accordingly, the Cubs’ system is very strong up the middle. Not only Theriot (plus obviously Fontenot and Baker) but also Byrd and Soto will find themselves in a competitive environment where they are oddly dispensable, regardless of how well they are doing. (If the team has a better, cheaper option in the minors, doing the job well enhances your tradeability.) Josh Donaldson is still a catcher in Oakland’s system. Had the Cubs not traded him, he would be drawing a bull’s-eye on Soto’s back. But there are other good catching prospects in the major-league camp in Mesa this month. One of them will probably make the team, since as noted in a previous post, the Cubs are a team that needs a third catcher. Soto, meanwhile, arrived at camp early in the best shape of his career.

According to Cot’s, Aramis Ramirez has a no-trade clause that expires after the 2010 season. With Josh Vitters due to arrive in town as early as 2011, Ramirez would appear to be tradeable next winter. It’s actually a bit more complicated than that, however, since Ramirez has an opt-out after 2010, which he should be able to convert, at a minimum, to a no-trade for the remaining two years of the contract. But put the contract aside: Ramirez should not be traded even if he could be. The Cubs can have Ramirez and Vitters in the lineup at the same time. They just have to say goodbye to Soriano after 2010 or 2011, and let Vitters or Ramirez play left field.

Full disclosure: I got this idea from Jim Callis’s projected Cub lineup for 2013, where Ramirez is at third, Vitters is in left, and Soriano is nowhere to be seen. I thought about this lineup for several minutes–and about the fact that Soriano will be paid $18 million in 2013 and in 2014, and also that Tom Ricketts had his eyes open when he bought the team and could not have intended for Soriano’s contract to weigh the Cubs down for five more years–and I thought, “Yes, it’s possible!”

The dollars that the Cubs have to eat as a result of McDonough’s Folly–John McDonough, Hendry’s boss at the time, is said to have added years and millions to the Cubs’ offer for Soriano–will be more palatable if they free up left field for Ramirez or Vitters.

I would not let Derrek Lee go, either. In past seasons I have lobbied for Lee’s dismissal, on the assumption that his offensive slide was irreversible. Lee turned me completely around in 2009 when he rediscovered the ability to do the same thing to fastballs middle-in. (Turn them completely around, I mean.)

As noted, Wilken doesn’t draft many slugging first basemen. Hoffpauir and Fox were holdovers from the previous regime. Wilken does seem to have picked a winner in Rebel Ridling, but that is just one prospect, who will start at high-A this April. Lee cannot be replaced in the foreseeable future.

With Lee and Ramirez anchoring the infield, and lots of fresh talent up the middle spilling over to the corner outfield spots, the Cubs can move forward confidently toward an interesting future.

Posted 21 February 2010 † Phil § Hendry § Ricketts § prospect § trade ‡ Comments (0) ° Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Bradley’s replacement

The Cubs’ second biggest problem with Milton Bradley was his personality. Larger even than the chip on Bradley’s shoulder was his inability to fulfill the role of run producer, the proper role of a right fielder. Bradley ended the season (via suspension on September 20) with forty runs batted in and a slugging percentage below .400. He did maintain a healthy OBP, as ever, but his preoccupation with getting to ball four failed to satisfy the Cubs, who did not wish to utilize their $10 million-per-year right fielder as a top-of-the-order hitter whose job was to get on base ahead of more capable run producers. If your right fielder specializes in getting on base, who is supposed to drive him in, the second baseman?

Strange, then, that the second batter in the Cub lineup as currently projected for 2010 will be Kosuke Fukudome, the $12 million-per-year right fielder Bradley was hired to replace. Bradley had a terrible year only in the sense that he put up Fukudome-like numbers.

Bradley: 473 pa, 393 ab, 17 2b, 1 3b, 12 hr, 40 rbi, 2 sb, 3 cs, 66 bb, 95 so, .257/.378/.397/.775
Fukudome: 603 pa, 499 ab, 38 2b, 5 3b, 11 hr, 54 rbi, 6 sb, 10 cs, 93 bb, 112 so, .259/.375/.421/.796

Of the two, Fukudome was a little better. He did have 100 more at bats, so the RBI per at-bat was about the same. The Bradley number that is appallingly low is the 17 doubles that drag his SLG down 24 points below Fukudome’s. But overall, these are two hitters who should bat second or eighth in a good lineup.

Not much improvement in the starting right fielder, then. The Cubs know this, of course, and have acquired a proven run producer in Xavier Nady who is gradually expected to take over right field as his surgical right arm gains strength over the course of the season. The Cubs got Nady for one year at a nice discount because it is a rehab year for him; but his limited availability in the early months may fit the Cubs’ needs. The Cubs are in phase-out mode with Fukudome. They will want to get him a fair number of at bats before they push hard to trade him at midseason, when his contract will have a year and a half remaining. Traded or not, his days as a starting outfielder with the Cubs will end when Nady takes over in right. Next winter Fukudome will be tradeable, more or less. Trading him will be expensive but will finally free the Cubs from the second of three ball-and-chain contracts.

Meanwhile Fukudome will bat second and draw walks and wait for other hitters, including the second baseman, to drive him in. When Soriano, another corner outfielder, batted first, the Cubs were well served having a run producer like DeRosa, and to a lesser extent Baker and Fontenot, playing second base. Baker and Fontenot are not table setters, however. Who bats second when Fukudome is on the bench? This dilemma will arise the first time the Cubs face a lefty starting pitcher.

This analysis suggests that Starlin Castro, Andres Blanco, Darwin Barney and Matt Camp have a better shot than is generally acknowledged. It also suggests that Fontenot and Baker are less secure than many people suppose, although Baker at least has the defensive versatility to play third.

If someone like Castro (or Luis Castillo) does latch onto the “2-hole,” Fukudome will go to seventh. They can’t bat their right fielder lower than seven while they are showcasing him.

Posted 08 February 2010 † Phil § Hendry § bradley § lineup § prospect ‡ Comments (0) ° Tagged: , , , , , , ,

Prospect ages

This is the season for baseball prospect rankings. Earlier this week, Kevin Goldstein published a list for Baseball Prospectus of Cub hopefuls, in which eleven players were granted 5-star (Vitters, Castro), 4-star (Lee, B. Jackson) or 3-star (Cashner, J. Jackson, Carpenter, Archer, Burke, Flaherty, Gaub) status. Surveying this talent brigade, I was struck once again by the youthfulness of its leaders. Prospects 1 through 4, and six of Goldstein’s first eleven, are under 22. A seventh, Jay Jackson, turned 22 in late October. An eighth player, D.J. LeMahieu, is missing from the list but rates four stars in my book. LeMahieu is 21 and a half.

Reproduced below is a spreadsheet that I use to keep track of the ages of notable Cubs, primarily but not exclusively minor leaguers. The chart has an “age today” column that will stay current automatically.

Everyone on the chart except Lee played at a level higher than Boise last season. Lee is not lagging behind the others, however. He could very well follow Castro’s example and skip Peoria. Antigua and Valdez played mostly in Boise but were promoted to Peoria at the end of the season, Valdez to replace Brett Jackson, who missed the playoffs with a hand injury. Valdez is one of three rabbits in the organization. The others are Lee and Campana.

Posted 29 January 2010 † Phil § prospect ‡ Comments (0) °

Most likely to stick?

Word was out last week that nineteen Cubs not currently on the 40-man roster have been invited to spring training with the major-league team.

Infielders: Barney, Camp, Castro, LaHair, Lalli, Scales, Vitters
Outfielders: Jackson, Snyder
Catchers: Chirinos, Clevenger, Robinson
Pitchers: Cashner, Coleman, Diamond, Kennard, Mathes, Perkins, Russell

Say hello to your 2010 Iowa Cubs!–with the exceptions of under-22 prospects Vitters, Jackson and Castro, a couple of whom may never see Iowa.

Snyder, Chirinos, Camp and Diamond are coming off excellent winter-league showings. Chirinos, in particular, will not hear this question when he comes to camp in Mesa: what have you done for us lately? To punctuate his gaudy regular season WL numbers in Venezuela, he has had a torrid postseason: .333/.365/.633/.998, with 5 HRs and 14 RBI in 14 games. He has been catching and batting second for Magallanes, currently in first place in the round robin. There’s a decent chance Chirinos will come to Mesa in Febrary having recently been named VWL MVP.

Chirinos will likely start the season in Iowa, however, where at least he can be first string (although Sandberg liked Castillo well enough at Tennessee last year). Chirinos doesn’t have the profile of a third-string catcher, since he plays strong defense and hits for average and power. Whether he can challenge Geovany Soto at some not-too-distant point remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, the Cubs do need a third-string catcher, and I’ll explain why. Most teams do not feel a need for three catchers; but most teams do not have a second-string catcher who usually enters the game when the closer comes in, if he isn’t in already. Lou prefers to have Koyie Hill behind the plate when Marmol is pitching. This was certainly true in September ‘09, when Marmol appeared in thirteen games, and Hill caught him in eleven of those games. In three of them, Hill came in as a defensive replacement for Soto in the final inning, i.e., Marmol’s inning. In the other eight games, Hill had started.

Without a third-string catcher, you tend to keep the backup on the bench, because you have a real problem if the backup comes in and gets dinged. Last September, Jake Fox was available to catch in an emergency.

So perhaps Lalli or Clevenger is the most likely nonrostered invitee to stick with the Cubs. Clevenger caught last year and played a little first. Lalli played first and caught a bit. Clevenger is probably the stronger catcher, while Lalli has more pop and could fill Hoffpauir’s shoes. It makes sense to me to say that Lalli may be in, Hoffpauir out.

When the last couple of roster spots are involved, versatile fill-ins have an advantage over starter types. Teams don’t like to have potential starters reduced to pinch-hitting duties. Chirinos at some point could replace Soto; so he’ll get a full season of games at Iowa. I continue to think that Hoffpauir would put up surprising numbers if he started at first base for the Cubs; but a rejuvenated Lee is likely to push Hoffpauir off the team completely. He’s an over-eager pinch hitter with no defensive versatility. That’s life in the big leagues: if there is ever an opening for a slugging first baseman, the line goes out the door and down the block.

By the same reasoning–niche players preferred to potential everyday players for roster spots 23-25–Snyder will likely get a chance to put up numbers at Iowa, pending an injury or a Fukudome trade, while Fuld handles the bench assignment for Chicago.

Posted 18 January 2010 † Phil § Piniella § defense § prospect ‡ Comments (1) ° Tagged: , , , , , ,

Bookends

Carrie Muskat had a recent blog which included a list of current and former players set to attend the Cubs Convention next weekend. Two names on the list caught my eye. Andy Pafko is the last Cub centerfielder who was an all star at that important position. Brett Jackson could be the next.

Or not. Either way, center field has been a dry hole for the Cubs for sixty years and counting.

I remember most of those years, but Pafko was before my time. He’ll be 89 in late February. He was an all star four straight years for the Cubs beginning in 1947. A couple of those all-star seasons, he played third base, but in 1945, at age twenty-four he roamed center for the Cubs in the World Series. In ‘51, he was in left field for the Dodgers when Bobby Thomson hit the famous shot.

As far as Pafko’s physical condition, he accepted the Cubs’ invitation, so that’s a good sign. Just as Pafko is by far the oldest, Brett Jackson, at 21, will be the youngest player in the delegation, by two years. (Cashner is 23.) The Cubs seem to like Jackson a lot, and if they’re like me, they’re just aching to have a kid in center field, finally, who is a worthy successor to Pafko.

Posted 12 January 2010 † Phil § prospect ‡ Comments (2) ° Tagged: ,

No news is good news

The Cub team that I’m excited about is a couple years away, but 2010 is shaping up as a solid season, largely because Jim Hendry has been demonstrating the same patience and shrewdness in selecting players that new owner Tom Ricketts has applied to the choice of a spring-training site. Hendry corrected a few old mistakes–Bradley and two fellows named Aaron have been peddled–and avoided new ones. Three years is too long for Marlon Byrd, but the contract is cheap and tradeable. Plan on Byrd being a starter for two years, maybe a bit less. Carlos Silva is something of an albatross, but the Cubs accepted him for the same reason that they accepted Luis Vizcaino in the Marquis deal last winter. They just wanted to be rid of the other guy. The Cubs paid Vizcaino $3.5 million, and he pitched 3.2 innings for them. We’ll see whether Silva stays on the roster much longer than it takes him to go sixteen innings.

The Cub offseason so far has been prospect-safe: no prospects were harmed in the manufacture of the deals that jettisoned Bradley and Miles, in particular. Shedding Miles did cost the Cubs Jake Fox, but I’m more focused on real prospects, those who can actually play a position. That group is intact, for which I congratulate the GM. Castro remains a Cub. In spite of a certain Trib reporter’s efforts to create a groundswell, I doubt that the Cubs were highly motivated to acquire Curtis Granderson, for the simple reason that one of their top two or three prospects is a natural centerfielder with speed and power.

There’s not much baseball in November and December but I’ve been keeping an eye on two winter leaguers whom I’d like to see invited to spring training with the major-league team. Robinson Chirinos is apparently an excellent defensive catcher who has matured into a power hitter. His numbers in 153 at bats in Venezuela are .366/.420/.641/1.061 with 10 home runs and 34 RBI. He also has two playoff homers. Koyie Hill had a strong year defensively in ‘09 and is not in jeopardy, but Chirinos could make a run at him defensively, and for that matter could challenge Soto both ways.

Chirinos survived the Rule 5 draft, as Jim Hendry noted at the end of the winter meetings.

Hendry said he thought a team might draft catcher Robinson Chirinos, who was batting .344 with eight homers and 26 RBIs for Magallanes in Venezuela this winter. Chirinos was available in the Major League phase.

“It’s hard for a Rule 5 catcher to stick [on a big league roster],” Hendry said. “[Chirinos] became a quality receiver when we converted him [from an infielder prior to 2009].”

Like Chirinos in Venezuela, Brad Snyder put up MVP-type numbers in 211 at bats in Mexico: .379/.463/.602/1.065, with 18 steals (5 CS’s), 9 homers and 48 (!) runs batted in. Snyder slumped in the playoffs but had two home runs in the final game. Snyder runs like a CF and throws and hits for power like an RF. The question is, is he still a Cub? He may be a minor-league free agent at this point, but I haven’t had much luck nailing down his status. (Matt Eddy of Baseball America keeps the only list I know of.)

The Cubs wanted to address two lineup needs this offseason: a run producer to bat 5th or 6th instead of Bradley, and a speed guy to hit first or second in place of Soriano. If they had signed Podsednik instead of Byrd, that would have left Baker or Fontenot in the role of run producer. Byrd is better for that role, but he leaves them short a top-of-the-order guy. The answer could be a Castro-Theriot tandem at short and second, but more likely the Cubs will trade for Luis Castillo. I think they have that intention, but with all the newly acquired patience and shrewdness–you don’t want to overcommit to Castillo when Castro is on the threshold–it may take several more weeks.

Posted 08 January 2010 † Phil § Hendry § Running § bradley § prospect § trade ‡ Comments (0) ° Tagged: , , , , , , ,

Rule 5 draft preview

The Rule 5 draft will take place next Thursday, December 10, on the last day of the winter meetings in Indianapolis. Arizona Phil has a list of Cub players eligible to be drafted–and lost to another team–that he maintains in the right margin of The Cub Reporter website. Of the names on that list, I suspect that Chirinos, Clevenger, Diamond, Lalli, Maestri and Papelbon are the most likely to be drafted. Chirinos would be the biggest loss, a power-hitting catcher with strong defensive skills to go along with years of experience at second and third base. Chirinos is in winter ball in Venezuela, where he maintains a .330 BA and a .957 OPS.

Brad Snyder is not on the list, simply because he is not a Cub any longer. He is a minor league free agent. It’s hard to say for sure why the Cubs did not sign Snyder to a new contract; but if they had, he would have been draftable. Of course, if they really wanted to keep Snyder a Cub, all they had to do was place him on the 40-man roster. Instead, at the deadline last month they added James Adduci to the 40-man. Adduci, like Snyder, is a centerfield and rightfield prospect, and he is coming off a fine season at Tennessee, where he played for Ryne Sandberg, who may have spoken up for him in organizational meetings.

Snyder is still hitting cleanup for Mexicali and still pounding the ball at a .373/.459/.589/1.048 clip. He is a lefty power hitter, but even against lefties he is hitting .371 with a .999 OPS. The picture may be different in a week, and it will certainly look different a year from now, but today there is no overflow of talent in center and right, where we have Fukudome, Bradley and Fuld. This is a good opportunity for Snyder, and he could be good for the Cubs.

He won’t be drafted, in any event. After next Thursday, any team can sign Snyder without adding him to the 40-man for another year. He should have several suitors. Look for the Cubs to sign Snyder quickly after the draft and bring him to spring training. I hope that Chirinos survives the draft and will be able to join Snyder in Mesa.

Thomas Diamond had three sparkling starts for Mexicali in the first part of November, and then he just stopped pitching for some reason. Maybe the Cubs had seen enough and were trying to hide him. Cross your fingers that you don’t see his name in the news next Thursday.

A couple of winter-league notes: Adduci is playing right field and batting second for Hermosillo in the Mexican Pacific league. Starlin Castro has joined Escogido in the Dominican winter league.

Posted 03 December 2009 † Phil § prospect ‡ Comments (0) ° Tagged: , , , , , , ,

November prospect watch

Several Cubs have been performing well in the just-completed Arizona Fall League season and also in winter ball in Mexico and Venezuela. On the hitting side, I would single out Brad Snyder, Robinson Chirinos, Starlin Castro, Josh Vitters, Matt Camp and Andres Blanco.

player team g ab r h 2b 3b hr rbi bb so sb cs ba obp slg ops
Robinson Chirinos Magellanes (VEN) 26 78 15 30 5 0 6 20 7 16 0 1 .385 .437 .679 1.116
Brad Snyder Mexicali (MEX) 34 131 25 48 8 1 6 32 21 25 12 2 .366 .455 .580 1.035
Starlin Castro Mesa (AFL) 26 101 18 38 5 1 1 10 3 14 9 3 .376 .396 .475 .871
Josh Vitters Mesa (AFL) 16 68 6 24 4 1 1 8 2 11 0 2 .353 .380 .485 .866
Matt Camp Mexicali (MEX) 35 152 25 51 11 1 1 22 17 10 10 7 .336 .405 .441 .845
Andres Blanco Magellanes (VEN) 30 126 21 39 11 2 1 23 8 16 13 2 .310 .371 .452 .823



Also doing good work are pitchers Thomas Diamond, James Russell and Jeff Samardzija. Here are the numbers:

player team w l g sv ip h r er hr bb so era whip k/9 k/bb
Thomas Diamond Mexicali (MEX) 2 0 3 0 14 8 1 1 1 3 15 0.64 0.79 9.64 5.00
James Russell Mesa (AFL) 0 1 11 0 14.1 12 6 2 2 2 14 1.26 0.98 8.79 7.00
Jeff Samardzija Mexicali (MEX) 2 0 5 0 24 22 10 6 0 8 22 2.25 1.25 8.25 2.75

Chirinos is a middle infielder who converted to catcher in 2008, and began to hit with authority at Daytona this year. Apparently he is becoming a very good catcher: Jim Callis referred to him recently as the best defensive catching prospect in a system that includes Welington Castillo and Michael Brenly. Chirinos will be 26 next June and has yet to establish himself in double-A, but two things about him intrigue me. He seems to have found himself as a hitter; and in terms of versatility he is off the charts, since he is highly competent at middle infield, third base and catcher. Where do you find a defensive combination like that? If you have a substitute infielder who can actually catch–not like Jake Fox or Casey McGehee, who didn’t catch an inning for Milwaukee–it’s a twofer, because it frees up your second-string catcher for pinch-hitting duties. Or else Chirinos is your backup catcher and you free up a roster spot.

After being drafted by the Indians in the first round in 2003, outfielder Brad Snyder displayed every tool except the bat-related ones, until the Indians released him and the Cubs signed him last year. Snyder has done nothing but hit with the Cubs (and now with Mexicali in winter ball). His season totals with Iowa are deceiving. He hit his 12th home run on May 17th, and broke his wrist sliding the following night. His numbers at that point were .317/.361/.669/1.020, with 12 homers and 35 RBI. He has produced a similar OPS this fall in Mexico; but when he returned to the Iowa lineup in August, his numbers fell off. It’s likely that he was still recovering from the injury. If he can hit, Snyder can do it all, including steal bases. He has more SBs (12) batting cleanup at Mexicali than the leadoff man, Matt Camp.

I believe that Camp, Chirinos, Diamond and Snyder are eligible for the December Rule 5 draft, so that’s something to keep an eye on.

Posted 20 November 2009 † Phil § prospect ‡ Comments (0) ° Tagged: , , , , , , , , , ,

Wait till next year (at AA)

Tyler Colvin had a decent half season at Tennessee (AA) and got called up in September. Starlin Castro had a good half season at Tennessee and is expected by many people to join the Cubs soon. (He’ll be twenty in March.) It’s hard to predict the future of any prospect but we can say with certainty that a Cub prospect who thrives at double-A can get Lou’s attention and earn a shot.

I’m not sure who the top Cub position prospects are, but I think I can identify the ones who are on the fastest track: Castro, Hak-Ju Lee, Brett Jackson and D.J. LeMahieu. Lee has the farthest to go, but he’s also the youngest. He hasn’t been to Peoria yet. If he skips Peoria, as Castro did last year, he can play at Tennessee in the second half of the coming season–as Castro did last year. Lee, remember, was recently voted the #1 prospect in the half-season Northwest League. (Jackson was #3.) At Tennessee, Lee will join Jackson and LeMahieu, assuming that they earn mid-season promotions from Daytona. So far, they have been very promotable.

Assuming, then, that all three players succeed at two minor-league levels next season, a year from now there could be four prospects making a claim on major-league jobs in 2011. In that case, there will be at least a temptation on the part of Cub management to free up second and short for Castro and Lee, and third for LeMahieu. They will want to make room for Jackson in center, where a “vacancy” sign has been hanging for too long.

Vitters, of course, will want to claim third base himself, but may be forced over to first. I’m not saying LeMahieu is a better prospect (I really can’t judge), just that he will ripen sooner.

There are other good prospects in the mix, but these are the four who seem to have the most upward mobility. I would be surprised if one of them had a problem at Daytona, as Vitters did, or a problem at Tennessee, where Guyer stumbled early last season. Guyer somewhat redeemed himself later, but the point is he lost momentum, which my four phenoms still retain.

Again, I’m not predicting stardom or even ordinary success in the long run for these players. I am predicting that in one year, the Cubs will have four very young position players vying for full-time jobs, compared to the one player, Castro, in that situation today.

Wait till next year, that’s my current motto. I don’t mean the 2010 season, but the offseason following, when the Cubs will not feel the usual pressure to (A) find a centerfielder, (B) find a second baseman, (C) find a leadoff hitter and (D) bid aggressively for outgoing free-agent Cubs.

Meanwhile, I’ll keep my fingers crossed that when Hendry is done trading prospects for dollars in a Bradley deal, a few of the big-four prospects are still with the Cubs.

Posted 14 November 2009 † Phil § Hendry § bradley § prospect § trade ‡ Comments (0) ° Tagged: , , , , , ,

First do no harm

So far, Josh Vitters looks like a beta version of the player he will become. By contrast, Starlin Castro, Hak-Ju Lee, Brett Jackson and D.J. LeMahieu have shown polished two-way skills that may propel them to the majors while Vitters is working on his glove, his plate discipline, his power stroke. Either way–whoever gets there first–it’s a bumper crop of position prospects. The glut of infielders may (or may not) push Vitters over to first. Jackson plays center field, where there is a big opening for him if he can rise in the ranks quickly and grab it.

All are babies. Lee turned 19 yesterday. Castro is 19 and Vitters barely 20. LeMahieu and Jackson turned 21 in July and August, respectively. Two other middle-infield prospects who have opened eyes in the organization, Junior Lake and Logan Watkins, are in this age cohort. Lake’s birth date is within a couple of days of Castro’s, and Watkins is the same age as Vitters.

While we’re inching up the age chart, Chris Archer, Kyler Burke and Chris Huseby are 21 and Jay Jackson turned 22 late last month. Casey Coleman is four months older than Jackson.

This array of talent among teens and low-twentysomethings on the Cub farm has surely aroused the curiosity of competing teams. When Jim Hendry calls a friendly GM and leaves a message about Milton Bradley, he should not be surprised when the call is returned. As long as the Cubs have Castro, Lee, LeMahieu, Flaherty, Barney, Watkins and Lake (not to mention Theriot) vying for the same shortstop position, Jim Hendry will be popular with his peers. If Hendry was willing to part with, say, Castro and Vitters, he could get a lot of money for them. The Red Sox just paid $8.5 million to 19-year-old Cuban Jose Iglesias. Iglesias and Castro are rival shortstops on the Mesa Solar Sox in the AFL. Castro’s BA today is 200 points higher than the Cuban’s.

What Castro or Vitters or some of the others are worth today is of no interest to me, but I’m afraid it may mean something to Hendry, who could theoretically add prospects to a package involving Bradley, and a few more to a package involving Fukudome, and actually tempt other teams to assume financial responsibility for these overpriced Cubs. What other GMs would really be doing is paying fat signing bonuses to promising players who hit the ground running in A ball. It would not really be about Bradley and Fukudome.

Hendry likes to lay everything on the line for the next Cub season, and that tendency should hold in the weeks following a new owner’s announcement that the manager and the GM will be “held accountable” when next season is over. All right, then, he must be saying to himself, how do we win it all in 2010? I have no money to spend. Maybe there is a way . . .

The Cubs are an old team on the verge of becoming a very young team. 2010 is a transition season, which the Cubs can utilize in two ways. They can ride out one more year of Bradley and Fukudome, hoping that the two outfielders will produce numbers that make them tradeable a year from now. Even Milton Bradley will start to become tradeable as the clock winds down on 2011. Or they can shed the dead weight quickly and at the same time free up significant budget, simply by liquidating some of the wealth in the farm system.

I suspect that Jim Hendry is not thinking beyond 2010, and that the GMs he talks to in the next few weeks will find him open to creative ideas, though they may be destructive ideas in terms of the future of the Cubs. That future is in the hands of the owners now. I hope, when Hendry brings proposals on how to cure what ails the Cubs, they give him the advice given to doctors for two milennia: primum non nocere–first do no harm.

Posted 05 November 2009 † Phil § Hendry § bradley § prospect § trade ‡ Comments (1) ° Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,